Chronos - t5 - base Open - source Time Series Forecast Model: A Useful Free Tool for Probabilistic Forecast

Chronos T5 Base

Developed by amazon

Chronos is a family of pre-trained time series forecasting models based on language model architecture, which transforms time series into token sequences for training to achieve probabilistic forecasting.

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Open Source License:Apache-2.0 #Time Series Forecasting #Language Model Architecture #Probabilistic Forecasting

Downloads 1.4M

Release Time : 2/21/2024

Model Overview

Chronos-T5 is a foundational time series forecasting model based on the T5 architecture. It converts time series into token sequences through quantization and scaling for training, supporting multi-trajectory sampling predictions.

Model Features

Probabilistic Forecasting Capability

Generates predictive distributions through multiple future trajectory samplings, providing uncertainty quantification.

Efficient Architecture Design

Uses a compact vocabulary (4096 tokens) to reduce parameter count while retaining the advantages of the T5 architecture.

Large-scale Pre-training

Extensively trained on public time series data and synthetic data.

Production Deployment Support

Offers Amazon SageMaker JumpStart deployment solutions for rapid productionization.

Model Capabilities

Time Series Forecasting

Probabilistic Forecasting

Multi-step Forecasting

Uncertainty Quantification

Use Cases

Business Forecasting

Air Passenger Volume Forecasting

Predicts air passenger numbers for the next 12 months.

Provides median forecasts and 80% confidence intervals.

Economic Indicator Forecasting

Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting

Predicts short-term changes in economic indicators such as GDP and unemployment rates.

🚀 Chronos-T5 (Base)

Chronos is a family of pretrained time series forecasting models based on language model architectures, offering efficient and accurate time series forecasting solutions.

🚀 Quick Start

Update Feb 14, 2025: Chronos-Bolt & original Chronos models are now available on Amazon SageMaker JumpStart! Check out the tutorial notebook to learn how to deploy Chronos endpoints for production use in a few lines of code.
Update Nov 27, 2024: We have released Chronos-Bolt⚡️ models that are more accurate (5% lower error), up to 250 times faster and 20 times more memory-efficient than the original Chronos models of the same size. Check out the new models here.

Chronos is a family of pretrained time series forecasting models based on language model architectures. A time series is transformed into a sequence of tokens via scaling and quantization, and a language model is trained on these tokens using the cross-entropy loss. Once trained, probabilistic forecasts are obtained by sampling multiple future trajectories given the historical context. Chronos models have been trained on a large corpus of publicly available time series data, as well as synthetic data generated using Gaussian processes.

For details on Chronos models, training data and procedures, and experimental results, please refer to the paper Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series.

Fig. 1: High-level depiction of Chronos. (Left) The input time series is scaled and quantized to obtain a sequence of tokens. (Center) The tokens are fed into a language model which may either be an encoder-decoder or a decoder-only model. The model is trained using the cross-entropy loss. (Right) During inference, we autoregressively sample tokens from the model and map them back to numerical values. Multiple trajectories are sampled to obtain a predictive distribution.

✨ Features

The models in this repository are based on the T5 architecture. The only difference is in the vocabulary size: Chronos-T5 models use 4096 different tokens, compared to 32128 of the original T5 models, resulting in fewer parameters.

Model	Parameters	Based on
chronos-t5-tiny	8M	t5-efficient-tiny
chronos-t5-mini	20M	t5-efficient-mini
chronos-t5-small	46M	t5-efficient-small
chronos-t5-base	200M	t5-efficient-base
chronos-t5-large	710M	t5-efficient-large

📦 Installation

To perform inference with Chronos models, install the package in the GitHub companion repo by running:

pip install git+https://github.com/amazon-science/chronos-forecasting.git

💻 Usage Examples

Basic Usage

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import torch
from chronos import ChronosPipeline

pipeline = ChronosPipeline.from_pretrained(
  "amazon/chronos-t5-base",
  device_map="cuda",
  torch_dtype=torch.bfloat16,
)

df = pd.read_csv("https://raw.githubusercontent.com/AileenNielsen/TimeSeriesAnalysisWithPython/master/data/AirPassengers.csv")

# context must be either a 1D tensor, a list of 1D tensors,
# or a left-padded 2D tensor with batch as the first dimension
context = torch.tensor(df["#Passengers"])
prediction_length = 12
forecast = pipeline.predict(context, prediction_length)  # shape [num_series, num_samples, prediction_length]

# visualize the forecast
forecast_index = range(len(df), len(df) + prediction_length)
low, median, high = np.quantile(forecast[0].numpy(), [0.1, 0.5, 0.9], axis=0)

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4))
plt.plot(df["#Passengers"], color="royalblue", label="historical data")
plt.plot(forecast_index, median, color="tomato", label="median forecast")
plt.fill_between(forecast_index, low, high, color="tomato", alpha=0.3, label="80% prediction interval")
plt.legend()
plt.grid()
plt.show()

📚 Documentation

For details on Chronos models, training data and procedures, and experimental results, please refer to the paper Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series.

📄 License

This project is licensed under the Apache-2.0 License.

📖 Citation

If you find Chronos models useful for your research, please consider citing the associated paper:

@article{ansari2024chronos,
    title={Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series},
    author={Ansari, Abdul Fatir and Stella, Lorenzo and Turkmen, Caner and Zhang, Xiyuan, and Mercado, Pedro and Shen, Huibin and Shchur, Oleksandr and Rangapuram, Syama Syndar and Pineda Arango, Sebastian and Kapoor, Shubham and Zschiegner, Jasper and Maddix, Danielle C. and Mahoney, Michael W. and Torkkola, Kari and Gordon Wilson, Andrew and Bohlke-Schneider, Michael and Wang, Yuyang},
    journal={Transactions on Machine Learning Research},
    issn={2835-8856},
    year={2024},
    url={https://openreview.net/forum?id=gerNCVqqtR}
}

🔒 Security

See CONTRIBUTING for more information.

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